Half-time/finals betting strategy: The secret?

We’ll start by saying no. It’s probably not what you’d expect to hear, but betting at half-time/finals is not the secret to winning more. They are, however, a good way to get more out of your bets in situations where one team is heavily favoured. If the basic home/ draw/ away odds are not very interesting, it’s a good idea to make a strategy of betting on half-time/finals.

But, for the beginners… What are the half-time/finals bets? They are those predictions in which we establish a result at half-time and another one at the end of the match. It’s like a kind of combined bet. To understand it quickly, if in a normal match there are three money lines, in this case there are 9. Here is an example:

• Single money line bets: Sevilla – Madrid – Tie
• Halftime/Final bets: Sevilla/Sevilla – Sevilla/Draw – Sevilla/Madrid – Draw/Sevilla – Draw/Draw – Draw/Madrid – Madrid/Sevilla – Madrid/Draw – Madrid/Madrid

Where before there were 3 options, now there are 9. The way this type of betting works is very simple. The probability of each result goes down, as there are three times as many options, but the odds go up. With this definition alone, if you have some knowledge of the world of betting, you should be able to see in which cases it applies. Among others, it can be the same as handicap betting or betting on the winner and more than x goals.

It is important not to confuse the half-time/finals bet with the “win both halves” bet. If the favourite team wins 1-0 at half-time and holds on in the second half, it will be a half-time/finals winner (Madrid-Madrid, for example), but it will not have won both halves.

When to bet on half-time/finals

First of all, you should know that you can’t expect the same certainty on half-time/finals bets as on moneyline bets. In other words, in the above case, Madrid may be clear favourites to win the La Liga match, but winning before half-time is not so easy. What you need to assess is whether that extra risk is worth the odds. Let’s see when it is useful:

• A team is heavily favoured: If you expect a team to win by a landslide, by probability they are probably already winning in the first half.
• You have detected patterns: You don’t necessarily have to detect that a team draws at half-time and wins at the end in 40% of games. You can see, for example, that they are stronger in the second half.
• The odds are very interesting: If you see a very high odds and you see that it is likely because of the data you have, it can be a good way to go.
• Combined with other bets: A good way to avoid upsets is to combine safer bets with more complex bets. A good way in a favourite team case would be to place three bets at the same time: Money Line, Half Time/Final and specific result.

Especially when combined with other outcomes, half-time/finals bets will have fewer upsets. I.e. if your team wins but there is a draw at half-time, you will be in for a shock. But if you had bet on both, at least you won’t lose, lose less or win something.

If the odds for the winner are 1.57 and the half-time/finals winner is 2.55, and we put 5$ on the first and 2$ on the second, several things can happen:

• None of them happens and we lose 7$.
• Win, but not half-time and final, and we will keep (+0.85$).
• Both are given and we get 7,95$.

If both are given and you make a mixed bet, you would lose $9,90. But if you bet everything on half-time/finals and they don’t happen, you would lose $7 instead of recovering $0.85.

You should evaluate with data whether it is worthwhile to place a bet on half-time/finals or not, and if it is better to combine it with other bets.

Half time/finals betting tips: More tips

If you’ve read this far, you’ll have seen that betting on the Half Time/Final is not something to be taken lightly. The only advice we can give you is to be confident in the odds, which is not the same as being confident in the odds. It is simply a matter of seeing that the odds/odds ratio is good, supplemented by other bets to cover your back.

But how can we know this probability? As always, with detailed data, taking into account as many variables as possible:

• Fixture history, form, general level and other key points in football betting.
• Performance by halves: We don’t just want a % of draw/win, win/win and loss/win, for example. We want to know if the team is stronger in one half or the other, cross-referenced with last games played, home/ away and the opponent in question.
• Be clear about how much to bet: As it is a complicated bet, it is essential to consider what stake to give and how much money we want to bet.

All in all, the bets on half-time/finals have the basis to work, but like everything else, it will depend on your application. With data to back them up and a suitable budget, they can be a very interesting resource.